Thursday, 2 July 2020

停车场理论

【停車場的原理說明經濟關門主義的危險性 -- 買美國貨,雇美國人= 關門啦!】
美國經濟學家Justin Wolfers教授打了個"停車場"的生動例子駁斥川普的關門主義。他說,停車場滿了,可是停車場也不斷地進出,像經濟發展的規律。這裡比喻停滿的車來代表美國國內的就业機會,如果你關上停滿的車場的大門,不准出,也不准進,短期看,美國的就業機會滿滿的,但時間長了,停的車都生鏽了。停車的人知道這家已關門了,都找到了另外的進出自由的停車場。最后倒霉的還是美國自己。
【How a Modern Economy is Like a Parking Garage】
Professor Justin Wolfers: "Think of the American economy as a 10-level parking structure or garage, where each car represents an active firm, and the seats in the car are the jobs available. A well-managed business like this is usually pretty full. But it’s also in a state of constant flux, with new cars entering as some people arrive, and previously parked cars leaving as others head home. Every hour, around a tenth of the cars leave the lot, just as a tenth of existing business establishments close each year and leave the labor market.
The deal at Carrier is akin to Mr. Trump’s intercepting a driver on his way to his car, and trying to persuade him to stay parked a little longer — perhaps by pointing to the enticing Christmas specials at the nearby stores.
It’s an approach that no parking business bothers trying.
Rather, the long-term strategy of such businesses is to try to attract a larger clientele by offering a more convenient experience. They understand that there are many more potential customers outside than inside the garage. In this analogy, the government’s best hope for creating jobs is to create a positive business climate.
Mr. Trump is focusing his resources on existing firms — the cars already parked there — rather than on the millions of potential entrepreneurs who might open the next generation of businesses.
Mr. Trump has also suggested that in the future he might use an alternative strategy: using sticks rather than carrots to keep jobs parked within the United States. But this also seems problematic — after all, would you choose to park in a location where parking attendants harass you when it’s time to leave?
The economics of parking contain a big lesson for the Trump administration: A parking garage stays full, and an economy stays healthy, only if it’s constantly refreshed."
(New York Times: Trump and Carrier: How a Modern Economy is Like a Parking Garage on 01.12.2016)

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